Published on May 22, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 22-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Canada) Victoria Day	None	CAD
01:00	(Montenegro) Independence Day	None	EUR
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 1Y	Medium	CNY
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 5Y	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:50	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
15:50	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF has pulled back to around 0.8975 as bears test a short-term support line in the early European session on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair is unable to reflect the disappointing first-quarter industrial production growth in Switzerland, despite the US Dollar's inability to gain strength from recent positive news regarding US default concerns and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

The Q1 industrial production in Switzerland recorded the slowest growth since Q4 2021, with a year-on-year figure of 3.4% compared to the previous reading of 6.1%. This data supports the cautious approach of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in raising benchmark rates, after having previously kept borrowing costs low.

Buy Scenario: - The intraday bias in USD/CHF is currently neutral. The rebound from the short-term bottom at 0.8818 is expected to continue as long as the minor support at 0.8918 holds. If the price can sustain trading above the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9039, it would confirm that the current rally is at least a correction of the downtrend from 1.0146. Further upside movement could then be seen towards the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from 1.0146 to 0.8818, which is at 0.9325. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other side of USD/CHF, the fall from the 2022 high of 1.1046 is viewed as a leg within a long-term range pattern that started from the 2016 high of 1.0342. Therefore, the downside should be limited by 0.8756 to bring a reversal. A sustained break of the support-turned-resistance at 0.9058 would be the first sign of a medium-term bottoming. However, a decisive break of 0.8756 would have larger bearish implications. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -