Daily Analysis For USD/CHF  22-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 22-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis
USD/CHF Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF
Economic Events : -
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders MoMMediumJPY
01:00(Canada) Victoria DayNoneCAD
01:00(Montenegro) Independence DayNoneEUR
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 1YMediumCNY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 5YMediumCNY
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI MoMLowEUR
07:30(Switzerland) Industrial Production YoYMediumCHF
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Greece) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD SentimentMediumAUD
09:00(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF SentimentMediumCHF
09:00(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY SentimentMediumJPY
09:00(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD SentimentMediumEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD SentimentMediumGBP
09:00(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD SentimentMediumCAD
09:00(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD SentimentMediumNZD
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:45(European Union) EU Bond AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoMLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoYLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Current AccountLowEUR
13:00(Kosovo) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(United States) Fed Bullard SpeechMediumUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
15:50(United States) Fed Barkin SpeechMediumUSD
15:50(United States) Fed Bostic SpeechMediumUSD
16:30(United States) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF has pulled back to around 0.8975 as bears test a short-term support line in the early European session on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair is unable to reflect the disappointing first-quarter industrial production growth in Switzerland, despite the US Dollar's inability to gain strength from recent positive news regarding US default concerns and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.
The Q1 industrial production in Switzerland recorded the slowest growth since Q4 2021, with a year-on-year figure of 3.4% compared to the previous reading of 6.1%. This data supports the cautious approach of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in raising benchmark rates, after having previously kept borrowing costs low.

Buy Scenario: - The intraday bias in USD/CHF is currently neutral. The rebound from the short-term bottom at 0.8818 is expected to continue as long as the minor support at 0.8918 holds. If the price can sustain trading above the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9039, it would confirm that the current rally is at least a correction of the downtrend from 1.0146. Further upside movement could then be seen towards the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from 1.0146 to 0.8818, which is at 0.9325. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other side of USD/CHF, the fall from the 2022 high of 1.1046 is viewed as a leg within a long-term range pattern that started from the 2016 high of 1.0342. Therefore, the downside should be limited by 0.8756 to bring a reversal. A sustained break of the support-turned-resistance at 0.9058 would be the first sign of a medium-term bottoming. However, a decisive break of 0.8756 would have larger bearish implications. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.8960-R1 0.9044
S2 0.8925-R2 0.9093
S3 0.8876-R3 0.9128


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