Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 21-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair experienced significant selling pressure, continuing its late pullback from a one-week high of around the psychological level of 0.9000. The pair remained under pressure throughout the first half of the European session and is currently trading near the lower end of its weekly range at around 0.8940.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) has benefited from a generally weaker tone in equity markets, as concerns over economic headwinds arising from rising borrowing costs have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. At the same time, the anti-risk sentiment has triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and contributed to the overall bearish tone surrounding the USD/CHF pair.

Buy Scenario: - If the USD/CHF pair manages to rise, the first resistance level would be the intersection of a downslope trendline that has been in place for one month, which is around 0.8990. The next resistance level would be the 0.9000 level, and if that is broken, the pair could rally towards the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9044 before potentially targeting the April 10 daily high at 0.9120. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair had two positive days earlier in the week but has since turned negative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are gaining momentum and the Rate of Change (RoC) has also turned bearish, which suggests that the pair could continue to move lower.

If the USD/CHF pair does continue to drop, the next support level would be the April 14 daily low at 0.8866, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low at 0.8859 and then the 0.8800 level. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -