Published on Apr 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 19-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
04:35	(Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:35	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 5-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Fed Beige Book	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) CPI	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair is struggling to find direction and remains under pressure, hovering around the 0.8960 level. The pair has failed to sustain its recovery from a 27-month low that was reached last week. Although the US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back slightly from a one-year low, it has since retreated and is currently on its second daily decline in four days. The decline in the greenback is attributed to lower yields. On Tuesday, both the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond coupons fell for the first time in four days. While the USD/CHF pair saw a brief halt to its two-day decline on Tuesday, it remains vulnerable to further losses.

Buy Scenario: - USD/CHF has encountered resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which is placed from March 08 high at 0.9439 to April 13 low at 0.8860, around 0.9000 on a two-hour scale. The recovery move by the Swiss Franc asset will gain momentum if it manages to climb above the 23.6% Fibo retracement.

The 20 and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are on the verge of delivering a bullish crossover around 0.8966. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is making efforts to shift its oscillation into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.

If the asset manages to decisively break above the 23.6% Fibo retracement around 0.9000, US Dollar bulls will drive the asset towards April 07 low at 0.9034 followed by the 38.6% Fibo retracement plotted at 0.9082. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a downside move below April 17 low at 0.8922 will drag the asset towards April 13 low at 0.8860. A break below the latter level will expose the asset to the round-level support at 0.8800.Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -