Daily Analysis For USD/CHF  18-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 18-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF
Economic Events : -
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Imports YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Exports YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Balance of TradeHighJPY
01:00(Austria) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Belgium) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Euro Area) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Finland) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(France) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Germany) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Luxembourg) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Netherlands) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Switzerland) Ascension DayNoneCHF
02:30(Australia) Part Time Employment ChgMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Participation RateLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Full Time Employment ChgMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Unemployment RateHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Employment ChangeHighAUD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
04:35(Japan) 52-Week Bill AuctionLowJPY
07:30(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
09:00(Spain) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
09:40(Spain) Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 5-Year Bonos AuctionLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Slovakia) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Private Consumption YoYLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Economic Activity YoYLowEUR
13:30(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Business ConditionsLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed EmploymentLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed New OrdersLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Prices PaidLowUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index YoYMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index MoMMediumCAD
14:05(United States) Fed Jefferson SpeechMediumUSD
14:30(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) CB Leading Index MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
18:00(United States) 10-Year TIPS AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Balance of TradeMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) ExportsLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) ImportsLowNZD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF remains stable around 0.8980-0.8985 as buyers take a pause during the slow early Thursday session, following a recent monthly high. The currency pair reflects market uncertainty due to a light economic calendar and the absence of significant macroeconomic factors, while the looming US default adds to the cautious sentiment. However, the recent optimism surrounding the extension of the debt limit provides some support to the prices.
It should be noted that the ability of US policymakers to assure the markets about avoiding a "catastrophic" default has boosted the US Dollar's strength. Positive remarks from US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have contributed to this sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - The price action of USD/CHF formed an inverted hammer candlestick pattern, which fell short of breaking the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair retreated but remained above the 20-day EMA at 0.8951. However, the overall bias for USD/CHF remains neutral unless buyers can reclaim the 50-day EMA at 0.902, followed by the 100-day EMA at 0.9144.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has entered bullish territory, indicating that buyers are entering the market, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) has moved above the neutral line.
Therefore, in the near term, the path of least resistance for USD/CHF is upward. The first resistance level is at the 0.9000 level, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.9027. If these levels are surpassed, further upside potential exists at 0.9120, which is the high from April 10, and then at 0.9196, the high from April 3. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if USD/CHF falls below the 20-day EMA at 0.8951, the next support level to watch is the psychological level of 0.8900.
Please note that this information is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.8947-R1 0.9023
S2 0.8910-R2 0.9063
S3 0.8870-R3 0.9100


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