Published on Apr 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 11-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) NAB Business Confidence	High	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) M2 Money Supply YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) New Yuan Loans	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) Total Social Financing	Low	CNY
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Fed Harker Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair has failed to recover and reach around 0.9080 in the Asian session due to the Swiss Franc's pessimism, resulting from the extended correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has dropped even further to nearly 102.40 as investors anticipate another rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next month.

In Asia, S&P500 futures have marginally increased after a slightly positive Monday, indicating mildly positive market sentiment. However, US yields have slightly declined due to the prolonged correction in the USD Index, with 10-year US Treasury yields falling below 3.41%.

Buy Scenario: - Traders will be keenly observing the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for further guidance. It is expected that the headline inflation will soften further due to the weak oil prices in March.

The USD/CHF pair has experienced a correction after reaching a weekly high of 0.91140. The Swiss Franc has corrected to near the breakout zone of the consolidation that occurred on Monday, and the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9084 is providing support to the US Dollar bulls.

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen into the 40.00-60.00 range after exhaustion in the upside momentum was observed.

For an upward movement, the USD/CHF pair needs to break above the round-level resistance of 0.9100, which will drive the major toward the high of April 04 at 0.9143, followed by the high of March 31 at 0.9178. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - However, a downward move below the low of April 04 at 0.9040 will expose the Swiss Franc asset to psychological support at 0.9000 and a fresh 21-month low at 0.8930, which was last seen on May 25, 2021. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -