Daily Analysis For USD/CHF  09-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 09-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF
Economic Events : -
00:01(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoYHighGBP
00:30(Japan) Overtime Pay YoYLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoYLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Household Spending MoMLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Household Spending YoYLowJPY
01:00(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans DeclarationNoneEUR
01:00(Luxembourg) Europe DayNoneEUR
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
04:00(China) Exports YoYMediumCNY
04:00(China) Imports YoYMediumCNY
04:00(China) Balance of TradeHighCNY
04:35(Japan) 10-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
04:35(Japan) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
07:00(Lithuania) CPILowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoMMediumGBP
07:45(France) Current AccountLowEUR
07:45(France) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
07:45(France) ExportsLowEUR
07:45(France) ImportsLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Balance of TradeLowEUR
08:30(France) Foreign Exchange ReservesLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 6-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 12-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 5-Year Bobl AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Australia) 2023-24 Federal BudgetMediumAUD
11:00(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage RateLowGBP
11:00(Ireland) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(United States) NFIB Business Optimism IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Fed Jefferson SpeechMediumUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic OptimismMediumUSD
15:30(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrsLowUSD
17:05(United States) Fed Williams SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 3-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
18:00(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel SpeechLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD

Today's Scenario: - During Tuesday's Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is trading around the 0.8900 level, which is a key psychological round figure. The pair is currently experiencing a downtrend, following its first daily loss in three days. This trend is reflected in the downbeat options market signals, which suggest that traders are looking to fade the recent bounce from the lowest levels since January 2021, which were marked last week.
The one-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CHF pair, which is a gauge of call options to puts options, was at -0.050 by the end of Monday's North American session. This suggests that traders are favoring put options over call options, indicating a bearish sentiment for the USD/CHF pair.
The weekly signals from the options market also suggest a bearish outlook for the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair. The weekly USD/CHF RR dropped to -0.1000 by the end of last Friday, according to the latest data from Reuters. This further reinforces the bearish sentiment for the pair.

Buy Scenario: - If the USD/CHF rebounds, it may face resistance at the 100-EMA hurdle, around 0.8930. A break above this level could lead the pair towards the megaphone’s top line, near 0.8980, and the 0.9000 round figure. However, if the USD/CHF buyers manage to hold the line above 0.9000, the mid-March low and the previous monthly high, around 0.9070 and 0.9200, respectively, may become potential targets. Overall, the USD/CHF is likely to remain under pressure, but the downside room appears limited. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - During Tuesday’s European session, USD/CHF was unable to sustain its rebound from the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and remained depressed below 0.8900. The pair’s MACD shows a less bullish bias, and it has been trading within a three-week-old bearish megaphone trend-widening chart pattern, which keeps the USD/CHF sellers hopeful. In this context, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair bears may initially target immediate support near 0.8840, which is the previous resistance line from March 08. If the pair continues to slide, the bearish megaphone’s bottom line, located around 0.8810, and the 0.8800 round figure may come into play. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.8871-R1 0.8916
S2 0.8847-R2 0.8936
S3 0.8827-R3 0.8960


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