Published on May 9, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 09-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Overtime Pay YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans Declaration	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Europe Day	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:45	(France) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Exports	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Imports	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Australia) 2023-24 Federal Budget	Medium	AUD
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs	Low	USD
17:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During Tuesday's Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is trading around the 0.8900 level, which is a key psychological round figure. The pair is currently experiencing a downtrend, following its first daily loss in three days. This trend is reflected in the downbeat options market signals, which suggest that traders are looking to fade the recent bounce from the lowest levels since January 2021, which were marked last week.

The one-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CHF pair, which is a gauge of call options to puts options, was at -0.050 by the end of Monday's North American session. This suggests that traders are favoring put options over call options, indicating a bearish sentiment for the USD/CHF pair.

The weekly signals from the options market also suggest a bearish outlook for the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair. The weekly USD/CHF RR dropped to -0.1000 by the end of last Friday, according to the latest data from Reuters. This further reinforces the bearish sentiment for the pair.

Buy Scenario: - If the USD/CHF rebounds, it may face resistance at the 100-EMA hurdle, around 0.8930. A break above this level could lead the pair towards the megaphone’s top line, near 0.8980, and the 0.9000 round figure. However, if the USD/CHF buyers manage to hold the line above 0.9000, the mid-March low and the previous monthly high, around 0.9070 and 0.9200, respectively, may become potential targets. Overall, the USD/CHF is likely to remain under pressure, but the downside room appears limited. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - During Tuesday’s European session, USD/CHF was unable to sustain its rebound from the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and remained depressed below 0.8900. The pair’s MACD shows a less bullish bias, and it has been trading within a three-week-old bearish megaphone trend-widening chart pattern, which keeps the USD/CHF sellers hopeful. In this context, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair bears may initially target immediate support near 0.8840, which is the previous resistance line from March 08. If the pair continues to slide, the bearish megaphone’s bottom line, located around 0.8810, and the 0.8800 round figure may come into play. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -