Published on Apr 5, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 05-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Industry Index	Medium	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Construction Index	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing Index	Low	AUD
01:00	(China) Qingming Festival	None	CNY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) RBA Chart Pack	Low	AUD
03:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	Medium	NZD
03:30	(Australia) RBA Gov Lowe Speech	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 7-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(United States) ADP Employment Change	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF is trading around 0.9050-60 as the European session begins on Wednesday. The currency pair is currently experiencing a two-day downtrend, which began in August 2021. The Swiss Franc (CHF) has seen a slight correction against the US Dollar, as traders wait for key US employment and PMI data to provide more insight into market direction. The US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields have stabilized at around 3.35% and 3.86%, respectively, after declining for five and three consecutive days. This drop in yields is due to weak US employment data and the Fed's less hawkish stance, which has weighed on US bond coupons.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, the support-turned-resistance line challenges the USD/CHF pair’s immediate recovery moves around 0.9080, a break of which can direct the buyers toward challenging the 10-DMA hurdle of 0.9145. In a case where the USD/CHF remains firmer past 0.9145, the aforementioned one-month-old resistance line of near 0.9180 can act as the last defense of the bears. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - During early Wednesday, USD/CHF is hovering around 0.9050, taking a break after a three-day downtrend that resulted in multi-day lows. The bearish bias is supported by the break of the key ascending support line from early February, now acting as immediate resistance around 0.9080, as well as bearish MACD signals and a one-month-old downward trajectory indicated by a descending resistance line from early March. The RSI (14) suggests potential dip-buying, with the August 2021 bottom of around 0.9020 and the 0.9000 acting as important supports. Further down, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves between November 2022 and March 2023, around 0.8920, will be in focus. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -