Published on Apr 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 04-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade s.a	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund/â‚¬i Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
18:30	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair is experiencing volatile movements within a narrow range near the immediate support level of 0.9120 during the Asian trading session. The Swiss Franc is likely to face significant selling pressure after breaking below the round-level support of 0.9100. The bearish sentiment towards USD/CHF is supported by the increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its policy-tightening cycle.

Last week, during a private meeting with US lawmakers, Fed chair Jerome Powell predicted that there will be one more rate hike in 2023. However, the lack of a specific time frame for this rate hike reduces the likelihood of it happening during the Fed's monetary policy tightening in May.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair has rebounded from its multi-day low and is trading near 0.9140 in Tuesday's European session. A key downside support for the pair is at the 0.9110 level, which is highlighted by an ascending trend line that has been in place for a week and an upward-sloping support line since early February.

However, the MACD and RSI (14) indicators are struggling to support the bullish momentum as the pair approaches a descending resistance line that has been in place for three weeks, around 0.9180. The 100-SMA level at 0.9195 and the round figure of 0.9200 also pose as important upside hurdles. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - If the pair manages to break above 0.9200, the 200-SMA resistance at 0.9266 could be the last line of defense for the bears. On the other hand, a daily close below 0.9110 could lead to a test of the March and February lows around 0.9070 and 0.9060, respectively.

A further decline below 0.9060 could potentially result in a sharp drop towards the 0.9000 round figure support level. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -