Published on Apr 3, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 03-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Small Manufacturers Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large All Industry Capex	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:15	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Home Loans MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Investment Lending for Homes	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) CPI	High	CHF
07:45	(France) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR

09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP

09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 3-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) BoC Business Outlook Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:15	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Capacity Utilization	Low	NZD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Business Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair is trading higher and has reached an intraday high around 0.9170 as it continues to climb after a two-week downtrend. The Swiss Franc (CHF) pair's gains reflect the current risk-off mood in the market. This sentiment is due to concerns over the impact of the OPEC+ decision to cut oil output, which has led to fears of higher inflation and economic strain.

Investors are also cautious ahead of key economic data, including the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for the same month. These events are likely to influence market sentiment and impact USD/CHF prices.

Buy Scenario: - At present, the USD/CHF bulls face a tough challenge posed by a descending resistance line that has been in place for the past month and currently sits at approximately 0.9180. Despite indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting that the bears may be losing momentum, the resistance line remains a formidable obstacle for the bulls to overcome.

In essence, the descending resistance line is acting as a significant barrier for any potential bullish movement in the USD/CHF pair. Although the MACD and RSI indicators are giving some hope to the bullish traders, the resistance line's presence implies that the bears are still in control of the market. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - Despite the persistent bearish pressure pushing the USD/CHF towards the 0.9100 mark, the sellers have failed to achieve a conclusive breakthrough below this level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Rate of Change (RoC) technical indicators are currently flat, indicating that some sellers are abandoning their positions.

However, if the USD/CHF drops below the critical level of 0.9100, it could trigger a more pronounced downward movement and potentially lead to a test of the year-to-date (YTD) low at 0.9059. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -