Published on May 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 01-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Cyprus) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ecuador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(El Salvador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(Estonia) Spring Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:00	(Portugal) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Spain) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) May Day Bank Holiday	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM	Low	AUD
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair has been gradually correcting after failing to sustain above the immediate resistance level of 0.8950 during the Tokyo session. However, the Swiss franc asset is expected to resume its upward trend as the appeal for the US Dollar Index (DXY) is improving ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

In Asia, S&P500 futures are adding more gains after recovering from losses, indicating a risk appetite theme where declines are being heavily bought by market participants. Additionally, a recovery in the USD index is supporting US Treasury yields, and the return on 10-year US Treasury bonds has rebounded above 3.45%.

Buy Scenario: - On Friday, the Swiss franc saw some movement following the release of Real Retail Sales data, which showed an unexpected contraction of 1.9% annually, rather than the anticipated expansion of 1.7%. This could be a relief for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) as it tries to tackle persistent inflation. It's worth noting that the Swiss economy will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair appears to be gathering strength for a bullish reversal after breaking a downward-sloping trendline and moving confidently above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average on a two-hour scale. A Triple Bottom chart pattern suggests that the selling pressure has abated, and the Relative Strength Index has entered the 40.00-60.00 range, with a move into the bullish 60.00-80.00 range potentially strengthening the US Dollar bulls further.

If the pair can decisively break above the psychological resistance at 0.9000, it may be driven towards the April 07 low and high at 0.9034 and 0.9082, respectively. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a downside move below the April 17 low at 0.8922 could drag the pair towards the April 13 low at 0.8860, with the round-level support at 0.8800 potentially exposed if the latter is breached. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -