Published on Mar 30, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 30-03-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
01:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
04:35	(Japan) 2-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB General Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Economic Bulletin	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Corporate Profits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:00	(Switzerland) SNB Gov Maechler Speech	Low	CHF
17:45	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is currently trading near a monthly low of around 1.3555 during the early Asian session. The Canadian dollar is expected to continue its strength against the US dollar, despite a slight recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD/CAD pair has been on a three-day losing streak and is likely to extend the losses if it breaks below the support level of 1.3555. The USD Index is trading in a narrow range, with limited upside around 102.80.

On Wednesday, market participants heavily bought S&P500 futures as fading US banking fears boosted investor confidence. Additionally, US authorities are working to reassure households that deposits will continue at mid-size banks after the collapse of a couple of banks.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CAD currency pair has reached a support level and is forming an M-pattern, which is a reversal pattern indicating that the price may return to the neckline for a retest. In the long term, the objective of this pattern is to retest the trendline support, which intersects with horizontal support around 1.3250. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - On the daily chart, if the price action corrects upwards, it is expected to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which aligns with the nose of the neckline at around 1.3650. However, if the bears regain control, the focus would shift to the 1.3450 level in the medium term. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -