Published on Mar 29, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 29-03-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Monthly CPI Indicator	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) GfK Consumer Confidence	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment Index	Low	CHF
09:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 6-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Switzerland) SNB Quarterly Bulletin	Low	CHF
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a pullback from its intraday peak and giving up some of the gains it made after bouncing back from a three-week low. The current price movement is in line with the slow and uneventful trading activity observed on Wednesday, hovering around the 1.3600 mark. The Loonie pair's direction is also influenced by the lack of significant movement in the price of WTI crude oil, which is Canada's primary export commodity.

As the Loonie pair retraces, traders will likely pay close attention to the upcoming economic releases and news that could impact the US and Canadian economies. Any development in the monetary policy of the central banks or significant changes in the commodity markets may result in volatility in the USD/CAD pair.

Buy Scenario: - If USD/CAD shows signs of recovery, the initial target could be last December's peak of around 1.3700, followed by a challenge to the previous weekly high of approximately 1.3805.

Nevertheless, the Loonie pair remains a target for bears unless it manages to surpass the six-month-old horizontal resistance area between 1.3845 and 1. 3865.Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - During early Wednesday, USD/CAD bears are facing resistance as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to probe the Loonie pair's two-day downtrend near 1.3600. It's worth noting that the quote has been unable to breach the critical horizontal resistance level between 1.3845-65, which has been established since September 2022. This failure to break through, coupled with bearish MACD signals and a downbeat RSI (14) that is not oversold, has given sellers hope.

If the immediate 50-EMA support level near 1.3590 is broken, USD/CAD could quickly drop towards an ascending support line from early June 2022, currently around 1.3450. However, the declining RSI below the 50 level indicates weaker momentum that could further support the quote's downside. Therefore, if the Loonie pair fails to reverse from the stated key support line, the 200-EMA level around 1.3370 could be the last line of defense for USD/CAD buyers. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -