Published on Apr 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 28-04-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	JPY
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
06:30	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(European Union) Informal ECOFIN Meeting	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) SNB Jordan Speech	Low	CHF
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Wages QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:00	(Canada) Budget Balance	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair has attempted to bounce back after finding support near 1.3590 during the Asian session. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still in correction mode and has not shown any signs of recovery yet.

The DXY is gradually correcting itself after a strong rally on Thursday, reaching near 101.80. The release of weak United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has raised concerns about an economic slowdown. The Q1 US GDP data came in at 1.1%, while the market was expecting a slowdown in the growth rate to 2.0% from the previous expansion of 2.6%.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is trading near 1.3600 as the Loonie faces resistance at the 50-day moving average after bouncing off a one-month high. The pair's MACD signals suggest a bullish trend, and it is preparing for a second consecutive weekly gain.

If the pair's rebound continues, it may reach a monthly high near 1.3650. However, a resistance line from early March near 1.3660 may challenge the USD/CAD bulls afterward.

If the pair surpasses this level, it may encounter resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the USD/CAD downside during October-November 2022, around 1.3690. Further upside resistance lies at the tops marked in late 2022 near the 1.3700 round figures.

If the USD/CAD pair breaks above 1.3700, it may challenge the key horizontal resistance area established since October 2022, near 1.3850-60. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pair closes below the 50-day moving average support at around 1.3585, it may face support at the early month high and a two-week ascending trendline, highlighting 1.3555 as a critical short-term support.

If the pair breaks below the 1.3555 support confluence, it may experience a drop towards the monthly low of 1.3300.

Overall, the USD/CAD pair is likely to remain firm, but its upside potential is limited. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -