Published on Mar 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 24-03-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
0:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
0:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
3:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
8:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Netherlands) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air	Low	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
16:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CAD has been trading within a narrow range since the recent Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, as the pair is currently lacking any strong signals to determine its direction. The Fed's cautious approach in terms of interest rates has put pressure on the US dollar, and its ongoing injection of liquidity has also contributed to the lack of clarity in the market. As a result, the USD/CAD pair remains in a state of indecision.

Buy Scenario: - Initial support for USD/CAD is seen at the 1.3650 level, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A break below this level could expose the 1.3600 psychological level, followed by the 1.3565-60 support zone, which marks the confluence of the 100-day SMA and a horizontal level.

Overall, the short-term outlook for USD/CAD remains neutral, as the pair continues to trade within a range between the 1.3739 resistance and the 1.3650 support. Traders may look for a break of either level to confirm the next direction for the pair. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - USD/CAD has been consolidating since the Fed meeting, lacking clear direction. The Fed's dovish rate decision and ongoing liquidity injections have put downward pressure on the greenback, while falling oil prices have weighed on the loonie as the Bank of Canada paused rates.

The first resistance is at 1.3739, with a successful break opening the way to the March high at 1.3860. Downside momentum is likely to be supported by the 21-day moving average at 1.3716, with a break below paving the way toward the previous day's low at 1.3642. The 50-day moving average at 1.3555 is the last line of support.

The RSI is at a flat 50 level, leaving room for both upside and downside possibilities. On Friday, the US will release Durable Goods Orders for February and S&P Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for March, while Canada will release its Retail Sales data for January. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -