Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 22-03-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 22-03-2023

USD/CAD Analysis
USD/CAD
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoMLowAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoMLowGBP
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Current AccountMediumCHF
08:45(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current Account s.aLowEUR
09:30(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechMediumEUR
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Current AccountLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 10-Year Bund AuctionMediumEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoMLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoYLowEUR
11:00(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends OrdersMediumGBP
11:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
11:30(Portugal) Current AccountLowEUR
12:05(Germany) Bundesbank Mauderer SpeechLowEUR
12:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index MoMMediumCAD
12:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index YoYMediumCAD
13:45(Euro Area) ECB Panetta SpeechLowEUR
14:00(Kosovo) Balance of TradeLowEUR
14:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel SpeechLowEUR
17:30(Canada) BoC Summary of DeliberationsMediumCAD
18:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
18:00(United States) FOMC Economic ProjectionsHighUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - LongerMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - CurrentMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 2nd YrMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 1st YrMediumUSD
18:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:00(Japan) Reuters Tankan IndexMediumJPY
Today's Scenario: - On the daily timeframe, USD/CAD is currently moving downward, with support from a descending trend line that originates from the March high at the 1.3862 level. Despite the drop in oil prices, the broad weakness of the US Dollar since the previous week continues to exert downward pressure on USD/CAD.
Buy Scenario: - USD/CAD is currently hovering near the 1.3715-20 level, as it struggles to attract buyers during the initial hours of the Federal Reserve (Fed) day. The currency pair is finding it difficult to build on the recovery seen in the previous day from the lowest levels witnessed in two weeks, as it is stuck within a descending triangle formation that has been in place for the past two weeks.
The recent hesitation in the quote could be attributed to its failure to surpass the resistance confluence at 1.3730, which includes the 50-SMA and the upper line of the aforementioned triangle.
Despite this setback, the potential for USD/CAD to successfully trade above key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals, combined with a stronger Relative Strength Index (RSI), that is not yet overbought, gives the USD/CAD bulls hope of overcoming the 1.3730 hurdle.
If buyers manage to push the pair beyond the 1.3730 level, they could set their sights on the monthly high of 1.3865, with the intermediate halt at the 1.3800 round figure before a potential run-up towards the previous yearly top of 1.3977 and the psychological magnet of 1.4000. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.
Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, the bears in USD/CAD would require confirmation from the lower line of the descending triangle, which is near the 1.3650 level. However, the sellers would face a critical challenge in the form of the 200-SMA support near 1.3575. It is worth mentioning that the 100-SMA could provide immediate support around the 1.3695 level.
Overall, USD/CAD is expected to remain stronger, but a near-term pullback cannot be ruled out. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.3659-R1 1.3752
S2 1.3605-R2 1.3791
S3 1.3566-R3 1.3845

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