Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 21-04-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair has reached a new weekly high of 1.3500 during the Asian session, extending its winning streak from the past two days and surpassing Thursday's high of 1.3490. The Canadian Dollar has been under immense pressure due to a significant decline in oil prices, which have been affected by the possibility of more rate hikes from global central banks leading to decreased global oil demand.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading sideways around 101.80 ahead of the release of the preliminary United States S&P PMI data. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on economic activities and are preparing for possible actions. According to the consensus, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to be at 49.0, lower than the previous release of 49.2, and the Services PMI is also expected to be lower at 51.5, compared to the earlier figure of 52.6.

Buy Scenario: - In USD/CAD 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458 is acting as support for the US dollar, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating more potential for upside movement.

If the USD/CAD pair can decisively break above the 38.2% Fibo retracement level around 1.3500, it could continue its climb towards the April 10th high at 1.3554. A further breakthrough of that level would expose the asset to the round-level resistance at 1.3600. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the Loonie drops below the round-level support of 1.3300, it could decline towards the February 1st low at 1.3267, followed by the November 15th, 2022 low at 1.3226. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -