Published on Mar 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 21-03-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
02:30	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:25	(Switzerland) SNB 2022 Annual Report	Low	CHF
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
12:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
15:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
20:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
21:00	(New Zealand) Westpac Consumer Confidence	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CAD has risen to a daily high of around 1.3690 on Tuesday during the European session, after bouncing back from a one-week low in the early Asian session. The pair is being supported by the weak price of Canada's main export earner, WTI crude oil, while also benefiting from the recent recovery of the US Dollar. Traders are now waiting for the release of key inflation data for February in the United States.

Buy Scenario: - USD/CAD has rebounded from its one-week low, reaching a new intraday high of around 1.3680. The pair is supported by a multi-day-old support line and the 21-day moving average. However, the MACD oscillator is still showing bearish signals, and a descending resistance line from seven days ago is posing a challenge for the buyers around 1.3745.

If the price manages to break through the 1.3745 resistance, it may face multiple resistances between 1.3750-60 before testing the monthly high at 1.3865. A break above this level could open the door for the pair to climb towards the previous yearly top of 1.3977.Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - Despite recent recovery moves, the USD/CAD pair remains bearish. However, there are indicators that suggest that the downside may be limited in the short term. The 21-day moving average (21-DMA) and a three-month-old support line, located near 1.3670 and 1.3660 respectively, are currently acting as barriers to further USD/CAD declines.

If the Loonie pair manages to close below 1.3660 on a daily basis, a drop towards the monthly low of 1.3555 may be possible. However, the round figure of 1.3600 may provide some temporary support during the expected descent.

In the event that USD/CAD bears continue to dominate below 1.3555, the pair's buyers may have to rely on the late January swing high around 1.3520 as a last line of defense. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -