Published on May 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 17-05-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
00:50	(Japan) GDP Price Index YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP External Demand QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Private Consumption QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Growth Annualized	High	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Wage Price Index QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Wage Price Index YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) House Price Index YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 20-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Unemployment Rate	Medium	EUR
06:30	(France) Unemployment Rate	Medium	EUR
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(France) 5-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 3-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
10:30	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
10:50	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Residential Property Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Residential Property Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:15	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 3-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) PPI Input QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) PPI Output QoQ	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - In the early London session, the USD/CAD pair is attempting to break above the key psychological resistance level of 1.3500. The Canadian dollar (Loonie) has bounced back after a minor correction, trading near 1.3463, thanks to a recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY has reached its highest point of the day at 102.68 due to deepening concerns over US debt-ceiling issues.

While S&P500 futures experienced moderate gains during the Asian session following a bearish Tuesday, the market sentiment appears mixed, putting pressure on currencies perceived as risky. The postponement of US debt-ceiling issues until the weekend has had an impact on Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has declined to approximately 3.52%.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a relatively stable trading session characterized by volatility. Today, traders are closely monitoring inflation reports from Canada. The Inflation Rate has risen from 4.3% in March to 4.4% in April, while the Core Inflation Rate has declined from 4.3% to 4.1%.

If the USD/CAD pair manages to settle back above the 1.3490 level, it is expected to move towards the resistance at 1.3530. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - Currently, the USD/CAD pair is trading in the range of 1.3480s, showing a recovery from the overnight low of 1.3404. There is a possibility of the price testing the resistance level at 1.3500, considering the shift in the previous bearish micro trend.

However, if the bearish pressure intensifies at the resistance level, there is a chance of a downward move to retest the counter-trendline support and the 1.3450s.

On the daily chart, such a downward move would align with a 50% mean reversion support level, followed by a 61.8% Fibonacci area around 1.3420, along with the trendline support. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -