Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 17-04-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CAD is currently trading lower around 1.3365-70, after experiencing gains for the first time in five days during the previous session. Despite hawkish remarks from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, the pair struggles to gain momentum due to a pause in US Dollar bearishness and a retreat in Oil prices.

BoC Governor Macklem stated on Friday that the governing council discussed the possibility of raising interest rates during their meeting on Wednesday, although rates were ultimately left unchanged at 0.50%, as expected. He also noted that interest rates may need to remain at higher levels for an extended period in order to achieve the inflation target.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair has experienced a strong upward rally, breaking through the 1.3350 level and settling above it. However, there are signs that the price may attempt to break below this level, as indicated by clear negative signals from the stochastic indicator, and the EMA50 putting downward pressure on the price.

Therefore, it is believed that there is a chance for the main bearish wave to resume, with the next target being located at 1.3250. If the pair fails to break through the 1.3350 level, additional gains may be achieved, reaching up to 1.3455.

For today's trading, the expected range is between 1.3280 for support and 1.3420 for resistance. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - USD/CAD has continued to move lower after a brief pullback towards the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, reaching potential support levels at the lows from February 01 and November 15, 2022, at 1.3267 and 1.3226, respectively. Investors have viewed the pullback as an opportunity to sell, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen back into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 after an unsuccessful attempt to shift into a more positive range, indicating limited upside potential. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -