Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 15-05-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During Monday's Asian session, the USD/CAD bulls maintain control as the pair hovers near 1.3550, its highest level in eight days. This upward movement is driven not only by the US Dollar's strength but also by the recent decline in oil prices, which is a significant export for Canada. However, market participants are adopting a cautious stance ahead of key events such as Canada's inflation data and US retail sales figures for April. Additionally, concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling add to the uncertainty, keeping traders of the major currency pair on the sidelines.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is currently approaching a downward-sloping trendline that has been drawn from the high point of 1.3862 on a four-hour chart. On a broader scale, the Canadian dollar is forming an Ascending Triangle chart pattern, indicating a decrease in market volatility.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3486 is consistently providing support for the US dollar buyers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a period of 14 has shifted into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that the upward momentum is likely to continue.

If the USD/CAD pair manages to break above the significant resistance level of 1.3600, it would strengthen the upside bias. This would open the way for further gains, with the next targets being the low point of May 21 at 1.3644, followed by the resistance level of 1.3700. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - Conversely, if the pair breaks below the low point of May 12 at 1.3480, it would diminish the upside bias and potentially lead to a decline towards the low point of April 4 at 1.3406 and the low point of May 8 at 1.3315. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -