Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 12-04-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 12-04-2023

USD/CAD Analysis
USD/CAD
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:30(United States) Fed Kashkari SpeechMediumUSD
00:50(Japan) Bank Lending YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI MoMLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders MoMMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders YoYMediumJPY
02:30(Australia) Building Permits MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Private House Approvals MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Building Permits YoYLowAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
05:45(Australia) RBA Bullock SpeechMediumAUD
06:00(Finland) Current AccountLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 6-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:10(Italy) 12-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 4-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 30-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) CPILowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPIHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPI s.aHighUSD
13:30(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
14:00(Ecuador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
14:00(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
15:00(Canada) BoC Monetary Policy ReportHighCAD
15:00(Canada) BoC Interest Rate DecisionMediumCAD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:00(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
16:00(Canada) BoC Press ConferenceMediumCAD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
18:00(United States) 10-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) FOMC MinutesHighUSD
19:00(United States) Monthly Budget StatementMediumUSD
20:15(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair has fallen for the third consecutive day and is currently at its weekly low of around 1.3450 in early Wednesday trading in Europe. The Loonie's gains could be attributed to the rise in prices of Canada's primary export item, WTI crude oil, as well as the general weakness of the US Dollar ahead of significant market-moving events. These events include the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision, the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, and the publication of the minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, which are expected to be closely watched by investors.
Buy Scenario: - The price of the currency pair has reversed from its prior upward trend and is forming a topping pattern known as the M-formation. The neckline of this pattern could act as a resistance level on a pullback, resulting in a lower low with a target around the 1.3440-50 range. If the price breaks below this level, it may test the prior lows around 1.3400, and bearish extensions are possible as indicated by the weekly chart. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.
Sell Scenario: - The USDCAD pair has broken below the 1.3500 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, signaling the reactivation of the bearish trend scenario. This could lead to negative targets around 1.3350.
Thus, the bearish bias is expected to continue today, supported by the negative pressure from the EMA50. It is important to note that if the pair manages to breach the 1.3500 level and hold above it, this would stop the expected decline and potentially lead to an attempt to build a bullish wave on the intraday basis. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.3447-R1 1.3501
S2 1.3428-R2 1.3536
S3 1.3393-R3 1.3555

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