Published on Apr 6, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 06-04-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Maundy Thursday	None	USD
01:00	(Portugal) Maundy Thursday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Financial Stability Review	Medium	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Composite PMI	Low	CNY
02:45	(China) Caixin Services PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:45	(Switzerland) Unemployment Rate	High	CHF
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	CHF
08:30	(Euro Area) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Construction PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Italy) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI	Medium	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Hourly Wages YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Participation Rate	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Employment Change	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Unemployment Rate	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:00	(Ecuador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair has risen to a new intraday high near 1.3485, as it tries to recover from its losses earlier this week, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive day on Thursday. The pair is closely watching the release of Canada's March employment data, which could have a significant impact on the currency. The US Dollar has been making gains, while the price of WTI crude oil, which is a key export for Ontario, has been lower than expected, contributing to the Loonie's weakness.

Buy Scenario: - If the pair manages to move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500, the momentum may shift in favor of US Dollar bulls, leading the pair towards March 31 high and March 29 high at 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - USD/CAD is currently following an Inverted Flag chart pattern, which indicates a trend-following pattern with a long consolidation phase followed by a breakdown. The consolidation phase usually serves as an inventory adjustment period for those who initiate shorts and current sellers who add more positions.

The Loonie pair has failed to stay above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, signaling further weakness ahead. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) upside is limited around 60.00, and a drop below the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 may activate the downside momentum.

If USD/CAD breaks below the April 4 low at 1.3406, it could drop towards a six-week low of 1.3350, followed by the round-level support at 1.3300. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -