Published on May 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CAD 01-05-2023

USD/CAD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CAD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Cyprus) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ecuador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(El Salvador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(Estonia) Spring Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:00	(Portugal) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Spain) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) May Day Bank Holiday	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM	Low	AUD
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3550-60 on Monday, after experiencing its first positive day in three sessions. The pair is benefiting from the recent decline in WTI crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar as a result of the current risk-off sentiment. However, investors remain cautious ahead of key economic data releases from the US and Canada, which could impact the direction of the pair.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side, a reversal could occur if the USD/CAD manages to recover and move above the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.3650. This could drive the pair towards the round-level resistance at 1.3700, followed by the March 22 high at 1.3745. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CAD.

Sell Scenario: - USD/CAD has experienced a significant decline after facing strong selling pressure at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3650 on the four-hour chart. This has caused the Loonie pair to drop below the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3590 and 1.3566, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has also shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. A break below the support at 40.00 could further strengthen the Canadian Dollar.

If the USD/CAD continues to drop, a break below the intraday low at 1.3533 could lead to a test of the psychological support level at 1.3500, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3438. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CAD.

Support and Resistance Level: -