Published on May 22, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 22-05-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Canada) Victoria Day	None	CAD
01:00	(Montenegro) Independence Day	None	EUR
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 1Y	Medium	CNY
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 5Y	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:50	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
15:50	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near its intraday low around 103.00 as it continues to retreat from the multi-day high reached on Friday. This decline is driven by concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations and the Federal Reserve (Fed) during the early hours of Monday. The DXY, which measures the US Dollar against six major currencies, reflects the market's anticipation of significant data and events scheduled for this week.

One factor contributing to the DXY's weakness is the inability of US policymakers to reach a deal on the debt ceiling, as well as mixed comments from Fed officials.

Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet on Monday to discuss the debt ceiling, following a "productive" phone call between the two as the president returned to Washington. However, it should be noted that Republicans have expressed less optimism and temporarily suspended talks over the weekend.

Buy Scenario: - To regain control, the bears of the US Dollar Index (DXY) would require confirmation by breaking below the 100-day moving average (DMA) support, which is approximately located at 102.85. The current main trend of the US Dollar Index is upward, but Friday's price action suggests a potential shift in momentum towards the downside. The closest resistance level is at 103.54 (R1). A break above this level would indicate increasing buying pressure and could lead to a further rally towards the next target at 103.90 (R2). Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if downward momentum strengthens on Monday, we could see a break below the near-term support at 102.92 (S1). As the main trend is still upward, there might be a technical bounce on the initial test of this level. However, if it fails to hold, selling pressure could extend towards 102.64 (S2). Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -