Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 21-04-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently correcting lower after dropping below the key support level of 101.80 during the Asian session. On Thursday, the DXY experienced volatile trading activity following the release of economic data that showed higher-than-expected initial jobless claims for the week ending April 14, as well as a weak Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for April.

According to the US Department of Labor, jobless claims exceeded expectations for the 11th consecutive week, with 245,000 people filing for claims compared to the consensus forecast of 240,000 and the previous week's figure.

Buy Scenario: - The USD Index is consolidating in a wide range of 101.63-102.23, indicating a lack of a critical trigger. Market participants are expected to react after the release of preliminary US S&P PMI data. According to estimates, the Manufacturing PMI will land at 49.0, lower than the previous figure of 49.2, and the Services PMI is seen lower at 51.5 against the previous figure of 52.6.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 101.85 is overlapping with the asset price, indicating a contraction in volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that investors are waiting for a critical trigger for a decisive move.

If the asset breaks above the April 17 high at 102.23, bulls will likely drive the asset towards potential resistances at 102.76 and 103.36, plotted from April 10 and March 24, respectively. Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a breakdown of the April 05 low at 101.41 will push the asset towards the April 14 low at 100.78. A further breakdown will expose the asset to the psychological support of 100.00. Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -