Published on May 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 17-05-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
00:50	(Japan) GDP Price Index YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP External Demand QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Private Consumption QoQ	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) GDP Growth Annualized	High	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Wage Price Index QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Wage Price Index YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) House Price Index YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 20-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Unemployment Rate	Medium	EUR
06:30	(France) Unemployment Rate	Medium	EUR
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(France) 5-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 3-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
10:30	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
10:50	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Residential Property Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Residential Property Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:15	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 3-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) PPI Input QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) PPI Output QoQ	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 102.60 in early Wednesday trading, showing a reversal of the pullback experienced earlier in the week from its highest levels in five weeks. The index's performance reflects positive US economic data, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), and positive developments regarding the US debt ceiling issue.

A meeting between US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy lasted only an hour but raised hopes of a positive outcome as congressional leaders stated that it is possible to reach a deal by the end of the week. In response to this news, the one-year US Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, as reported by S&P Global Market Intelligence, fell from 164 basis points (bps) to 155 bps. The spreads on five-year CDS also decreased from 72 bps to 69 bps on Monday, according to Reuters.

Overall, the US Dollar Index's movements reflect the positive sentiment surrounding upbeat US data, hawkish Fed comments, and the potential resolution of the US debt ceiling issue.

Buy Scenario: - If the rally extends and the price surpasses 102.31, it will indicate increased buying strength, with the next major target at 103.29.

On the other hand, if the price drops below 102.01, it will indicate weakness in the market. Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - The primary trend for the US Dollar Index (DXY) is upward. The trend shifted to an upward direction on Friday when buyers pushed the price above 102.18, and it was confirmed on Monday as buying continued and surpassed 102.48, reaching 102.58. However, if the price falls below 101.82, the main trend will change to a downward direction. Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -