Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 15-05-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to show strength, reaching its highest level in over a month, near 102.75, during Monday's Asian session. The index has been on an upward trend for the past three days.

Despite the negative signals regarding US inflation, the DXY posted its first weekly gain in three weeks and its largest increase since late 2022. This can be attributed to concerns surrounding the potential default of the US in early June if the debt ceiling is not addressed promptly. Additionally, fears arising from the decline in share prices and deposits of some mid-tier US banks have contributed to the dollar's strength.

Notably, President Joe Biden's indication of debt ceiling talks on Tuesday and the optimism expressed by a Treasury Official have supported the bullish sentiment for the DXY, particularly during the early Asian session with a light economic calendar. However, the ongoing disagreement among policymakers and the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials serve as factors supporting the US Dollar Index bulls. Conversely, weak US economic data and the Fed's recent dovish interest rate hike can undermine the optimism surrounding the DXY.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, a break above the level of 102.75, which was the monthly high on May 15, could pave the way for further gains. The next resistance level to monitor would be 102.80, which was the weekly high on April 10, followed by 103.05, the monthly high on April 3.

It's important to keep in mind that market conditions can change, and prices may fluctuate. Therefore, it is advisable to stay updated on the latest developments and employ appropriate risk management strategies when trading. Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - Currently, the US Dollar Index is down 0.09% at 102.60 and is approaching the next support level at 101.01, which was the weekly low on April 26. If the index falls below this level, the next support levels to watch are 100.78, which was the 2023 low on April 14, and ultimately the psychological level of 100.00. Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -