Published on May 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For US Doller Index 11-05-2023

US Doller Index Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for US Doller Index

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Bank Lending YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Summary of Opinions	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Monetary Policy Report	High	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
15:15	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During the early hours of Thursday's trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained defensive near 101.40, following the biggest daily loss in a week after snapping a two-day uptrend. The gauge of the greenback versus the six major currencies reflects the market's mixed sentiment towards the US inflation data, especially amid looming concerns over a US default and banking fears.

Despite the US inflation seeing its first drop below 5.0% in two years, the details were not entirely negative and seem to indicate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be pursuing a rate cut move.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April eased to 4.9% YoY, falling short of market expectations of reprinting the 5.0% inflation mark. However, the MoM figures matched the upbeat forecast of 0.4% compared to the previous readings of 0.1%. The CPI ex Food & Energy, also known as the core CPI, matched market consensus at 5.5% and 0.4% on a yearly and monthly basis, respectively. This was in line with the previous figures of 5.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Buy Scenario: - The index is currently up by 0.03%, trading at 101.44. If the index manages to break above the weekly high of May 9 at 101.83, it would pave the way for further gains towards 102.40 (monthly high on May 2) and 102.80 (weekly high on April 10). Till we do not advise to buy US Dollar Index.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, initial support can be found at 101.01 (weekly low on April 26), followed by 100.78 (2023 low on April 14), and ultimately at the psychological level of 100.00. Till we do not advise to sell in US Dollar Index

Support and Resistance Level: -