Published on Mar 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For Silver (XAG/USD) 24-03-2023

Sliver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAG/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
0:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
0:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
3:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
8:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Netherlands) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air	Low	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
16:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Silver price has surged to a six-week high during the North American session, primarily due to the weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The USD is under pressure from falling US Treasury bond yields, which has resulted in XAG/USD trading at $23.12, after hitting a low of $22.76 earlier in the day.

Buy Scenario: - The price of silver has risen sharply to reach six-week highs during the North American trading session, thanks to a weak US Dollar that is being pressured by falling US Treasury bond yields. As a result, XAG/USD is currently trading at $23.12, having reached a low of $22.76 earlier in the day.

During the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decision, the XAG/USD remained stable around the $22.20s range before US Treasury bond yields fell, causing silver to rally and test the $23.00 level before pulling back and closing at $22.97. However, the price action on Thursday resumed the upward trend, with buyers clustering around the $22.70 level, pushing the XAG/USD price above $23.00.

Although the XAG/USD bias is neutral, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $21.87 has exceeded the 200-day EMA of $21.83, which could cause another surge in silver prices, potentially testing the year-to-date high of $24.63.

The first resistance for XAG/USD would be the daily high of February 3 at $23.59. Once this level is cleared, the XAG/USD will head towards the $24.00 level, and if this is broken, silver will be poised to test the year-to-date high of $24.63.Till we did not recommend buying Silver (XAG/USD).

Sell Scenario: - The price of silver (XAG/USD) fell to $23.00, ending a two-day winning streak and reversing from its highest levels since early February on Friday. The metal is now showing a one-week-old bearish chart pattern in the form of a rising wedge, which is attracting sellers due to its location at a multi-day top.

The downside momentum is being reinforced by sluggish MACD signals and the overbought conditions of the RSI (14) line.

Therefore, the XAG/USD is expected to fall further towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the metal's decline during the February-March period, around $22.80.

However, further declines depend on the ability of the price to break the lower line of the aforementioned wedge, which currently stands at around $22.60.

After breaking the wedge's lower line, the XAG/USD may face resistance from the 50-SMA and 200-SMA at around $22.30 and $21.55, respectively, as it potentially heads towards the early March swing high around $21.30. Till we do not advise selling silver (XAG/USD).

Support and Resistance Level: -