Published on Jun 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For Silver (XAG/USD) 15-06-2023

Sliver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Key Points: -

· On Thursday, silver encountered new selling pressure, causing it to decline to a one-week low. This development in the market favors bearish traders and suggests the potential for additional losses in the near term.

· To shift the negative bias and reverse the downward momentum, silver would need to sustain a move back above the $24.00 price level. This would indicate a potential change in sentiment and could lead to a more bullish outlook.

· Traders and investors should monitor the price action closely to assess whether silver can overcome the selling pressure and reclaim the key resistance level of $24.00.

Today's Scenario: -

On Thursday, silver faced challenges in maintaining the positive momentum from the previous day and experienced significant selling pressure. As a result, it dropped to a one-week low as the European session commenced. The current trading price for silver is slightly below the mid-$23.00s, reflecting a decline of approximately 2% for the day. The downward trend suggests that silver remains susceptible to further weakness in the near future.

Diagram of XAG/USD (Silver): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

0:00 (United States) Fed Press Conference High USD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate YoY Medium NZD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate QoQ Medium NZD

5:20 (Japan) Foreign Bond Investment Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders YoY Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders MoM Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Imports YoY Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Balance of Trade High JPY

5:20 (Japan) Exports YoY Medium JPY

5:30 (Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting Medium EUR

7:00 (Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Part Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Participation Rate Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Full Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Unemployment Rate High AUD

7:00 (Australia) Employment Change High AUD

7:00 (Australia) RBA Bulletin Medium AUD

7:00 (China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement Low CNY

7:00 (China) House Price Index YoY Medium CNY

7:30 (China) Unemployment Rate High CNY

7:30 (China) Retail Sales YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Industrial Production YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY Medium CNY

9:05 (Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction Low JPY

10:00 (Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM Low JPY

10:00 (Netherlands) Unemployment Rate Medium EUR

10:30 (Finland) GDP YoY Low EUR

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM Low CHF

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY Low CHF

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate MoM Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate YoY Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

13:30 (Spain) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:10 (Spain) Obligacion Auction Low EUR

14:10 (Spain) Bonos Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:30 (France) 5-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (France) 3-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Greece) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

15:00 (Belgium) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

15:30 (France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction Low EUR

15:30 (Ireland) Balance of Trade Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Economic Activity YoY Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Private Consumption YoY Low EUR

17:45 (Canada) Housing Starts Medium CAD

17:45 (Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision High EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate Low EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate High EUR

18:00 (Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM Low CAD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales YoY High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Business Conditions Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Employment Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed CAPEX Index Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Prices Paid Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed New Orders Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average High USD

18:00 (United States) Continuing Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Initial Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM High USD

18:15 (Euro Area) ECB Press Conference High EUR

18:30 (Belgium) Balance of Trade Low EUR

18:30 (Kosovo) GDP Growth Rate YoY Low EUR

18:45 (United States) Capacity Utilization Low USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production YoY Low USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production YoY Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production MoM Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production MoM Low USD

19:30 (United States) Business Inventories MoM Medium USD

19:30 (United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Low USD

21:00 (United States) 8-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:00 (United States) 4-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:05 (United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech Low GBP

21:30 (Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction Low CAD

21:30 (United States) 15-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

21:30 (United States) 30-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

Buy Scenario: -

On the buying side, any attempted recovery may attract new sellers and face resistance near the $24.00 level, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Sustained strength above this level could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $24.50-$24.55 supply zone, or the 50% Fibonacci level. Subsequently, the XAG/USD could aim to regain the $25.00 psychological level and potentially gain momentum towards the $25.35-$25.40 resistance zone. If bullish momentum continues, traders may target the $26.00 level. Till we did not recommend buying Silver (XAG/USD).

Sell Scenario: -

From a technical standpoint, the recent inability of silver to surpass the $24.50-$24.55 range, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downward movement in May, coupled with the break below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicates a favorable scenario for bearish traders. Additionally, the XAG/USD has now dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Furthermore, the oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to shift into negative territory, further supporting the potential for additional losses.

However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart is currently indicating oversold conditions. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest bounce before considering new bearish positions. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD is expected to continue its decline below the $23.00 level and test the $22.70-$22.65 region, which represents a two-month low reached in May. The downward trajectory could extend further, potentially reaching the $22.00 level. Till we do not advise selling silver (XAG/USD).