Published on Jun 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For Silver (XAG/USD) 13-06-2023

Sliver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Key Points: -

· Silver price gains momentum to recover from early-week losses and rebounds off the 100-hour moving average (HMA).

· The convergence of the 50-hour moving average and a downward trend line from Friday's trading session is currently acting as an immediate resistance for XAG/USD, especially with the upcoming release of US CPI data.

· Additionally, the 200-hour moving average and a two-week-old upward support line serve as downside barriers for silver.

· However, the presence of positive oscillators and the ability to maintain trading above significant technical levels provide optimism for silver buyers.

Today's Scenario: -

On Tuesday, silver experiences a strong and significant upward movement, effectively reversing a considerable portion of the decline observed the previous day, where it dropped below the $23.00 mark. The white metal sustains its positive momentum throughout the first half of the European session and currently resides near the upper boundary of its daily trading range, approximately around the $24.20 area. This represents a gain of more than 0.50% for the day.

Diagram of XAG/USD (Silver): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

4:15 (New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY Low NZD

5:20 (Japan) BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ Low JPY

6:00 (Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change High AUD

6:00 (Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index High AUD

7:00 (Australia) NAB Business Confidence High AUD

11:30 (Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

11:30 (Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

11:30 (Germany) Inflation Rate MoM Medium EUR

11:30 (Germany) Inflation Rate YoY Medium EUR

11:30 (Germany) CPI High EUR

11:30 (United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) Medium GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate High GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change High GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Employment Change High GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change Low GBP

12:30 (Lithuania) Current Account Low EUR

12:30 (Spain) CPI High EUR

12:30 (Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

12:30 (Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:30 (Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

12:30 (Spain) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:30 (Spain) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

13:30 (China) Total Social Financing Low CNY

13:30 (China) New Yuan Loans Low CNY

13:30 (China) M2 Money Supply YoY Low CNY

13:30 (China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY Low CNY

14:10 (Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Medium EUR

14:30 (Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index High EUR

14:30 (Germany) ZEW Current Conditions Low EUR

14:30 (United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction Low GBP

14:40 (Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction Low EUR

14:40 (Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction Low EUR

14:40 (Italy) 30-Year BTP Auction Low EUR

15:00 (Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction Low EUR

15:15 (Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech Low EUR

15:30 (Latvia) Current Account Low EUR

15:30 (United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index Low USD

17:30 (Ecuador) Balance of Trade Low USD

18:00 (United States) Core Inflation Rate MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Inflation Rate MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Core Inflation Rate YoY High USD

18:00 (United States) Inflation Rate YoY High USD

18:00 (United States) CPI High USD

18:00 (United States) CPI s.a High USD

18:15 (Germany) Current Account Low EUR

18:25 (United States) Redbook YoY Low USD

19:30 (United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech Medium GBP

20:30 (United Kingdom) BoE Dhingra Speech Low GBP

21:00 (United States) 52-Week Bill Auction Low USD

22:30 (United States) 30-Year Bond Auction Low USD

Buy Scenario: -

In this process, the precious metal continues its recovery from the 100-hour moving average (HMA), which began late on Monday. The bullish signals on the MACD indicator and the relative strength index (RSI) line, which approaches the 50 level, further contribute to the upward momentum.

However, the presence of the 50-hour moving average (50-HMA) and a declining trend line from Friday introduces caution to the market's sentiment as it awaits the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. These factors pose a challenge to the silver price's ability to break above the resistance confluence at $24.20.

With that being said, a clear breakthrough above $24.20 would confidently target the monthly high recorded last Friday at approximately $24.52, with an ultimate goal of reaching the significant round figure of $25.00.

It's important to note that a silver price rise beyond $25.00 holds great importance, as it would enable the bulls to once again reach the highs achieved in April and May, around the levels of $26.10-15. Till we did not recommend buying Silver (XAG/USD).

Sell Scenario: -

On the downside, immediate declines in silver prices are constrained by the round figure support at $24.00, positioned ahead of the 100-hour moving average (100-HMA) support at around $23.95.

Even if the bears in XAG/USD manage to break below the $23.95 support, the 200-hour moving average (200-HMA) and an upward-sloping support line originating from May 26, located near $23.80 and $23.65 respectively, would act as additional obstacles before the sellers gain control. Till we do not advise selling silver (XAG/USD).