Published on May 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For Silver (XAG/USD) 04-05-2023

Sliver (XAG/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAG/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Japan) Greenery Day	None	JPY
01:00	(Latvia) Declaration of Independence Day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:30	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:15	(Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate	Low	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate	High	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Press Conference	High	EUR
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrs	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The price of silver (XAG/USD) has been on an upward trend for the past three days and is up 0.50% to around $25.70 during early Thursday in Asia. This increase is attributed to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further rate hikes despite raising benchmark rates by 0.25%, as well as the positive sentiment in the options market.

The one-month risk reversal (RR) for silver, which measures the difference between the call and put options, is currently at a bullish level of 0.1000, the highest in three weeks as of the end of Wednesday's North American session. However, it is important to note that the daily RR saw the biggest drop since April 18 the previous day. Despite this, the options market sentiment for silver remains bearish for May, following a negative April.

Buy Scenario: - From a technical standpoint, the XAG/USD has faced repeated failures near the $26.00 level, which could signal potential bullish exhaustion. However, the metal has shown resilience near the $25.50-$25.40 support level, which now acts as a key pivotal point. This area also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April rally.

On the other hand, bullish traders may wait for a move above the $26.00 level and the April one-year high before placing fresh bets. If this happens, XAG/USD could move towards the $26.25-$26.30 region and the March 2022 swing high, which is just below the $27.00 round-figure mark. Till we did not recommend buying Silver (XAG/USD).

Sell Scenario: - If the support is broken, XAG/USD could weaken to around $24.00 and test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around $23.70, followed by the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at the $23.35-$23.30 confluence area, before reaching the $23.00 level, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Till we do not advise selling silver (XAG/USD).

Support and Resistance Level: -