Published on Mar 29, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 29-03-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Monthly CPI Indicator	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) GfK Consumer Confidence	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment Index	Low	CHF
09:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 6-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Switzerland) SNB Quarterly Bulletin	Low	CHF
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is struggling to surpass 0.6260 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown signs of recovery near 102.40. Despite finding an intermediate cushion at this level, the downside bias has not faded yet, as investors remain divided about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision to be taken in May.

The S&P500 futures have seen significant gains during the Asian session, following a choppy Tuesday, on the hope that fears of a United States banking crisis would continue to recede. This positive market sentiment has led to an improved risk appetite for risk-sensitive assets. However, the demand for US government bonds is being further impacted by decelerating US banking jitters, which has increased the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.58%.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is recording mild gains around 0.6260 in early Wednesday trading in Europe, as bulls take a breather following yesterday's biggest run-up in over a week. The Kiwi pair's upside momentum has faded below key resistance levels, but it has managed to defend a two-day run-up.

The pair's sustained reversal from a three-week-old ascending support line, along with bullish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14), continues to support buyers. However, the immediate upside of the NZD/USD pair is restricted by a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-February, which is currently close to 0.6280.

Further up, a convergence of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages poses a challenge for Kiwi pair buyers around 0.6285-95. It is noteworthy that the round figure of 0.6300 acts as an additional filter towards the north, and a break of this level could lead to a challenge of the mid-February high around 0.6390. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - If NZD/USD fails to maintain its bullish momentum and moves towards the downside, it must find support at the immediate support line near 0.6195. However, if the pair fails to hold above this level, market attention may shift towards the multiple lows marked since late November 2022, around 0.6090-80. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -