Published on Mar 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 28-03-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
1:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
4:35	(Japan) 40-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
5:15	(Australia) RBA Connolly Speech	Medium	AUD
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Climate Indicator	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:35	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Medium	EUR
9:45	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Short Term Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Goods Trade Balance	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has experienced a strong rebound after finding support at the 0.6180 level. The Kiwi has continued its upward momentum and is currently trading above 0.6230 during the early European session. The Kiwi's positive outlook is due to the weakness of the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has resumed its decline after finding short-term support around 102.60. The USD Index has continued to weaken as investors are no longer expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to change its monetary policy during its May policy meeting. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is now over a 60% chance that the Fed will keep its current policy unchanged.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has resumed its bullish trend and reached a new intraday high of 0.6220 early on Tuesday. The pair's upside momentum is supported by several factors, including the successful break of key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), bullish MACD signals, and an upbeat RSI (14) line that is not overbought.

Despite the bullish bias, NZD/USD may face resistance at multiple levels, particularly around 0.6250 and 0.6270, before potentially reaching the monthly high of around 0.6295. However, the pair's upward momentum would require confirmation from the 0.6300 round figure before it can advance further toward the mid-February swing high of around 0.6390. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair could face strong downside support at 0.6215, where the 100-EMA and 200-EMA converge with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's run-up from March 8 to March 23. If the pair breaks below this level, the ascending trend line from March 8, currently near 0.6185, could provide support for the bears. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -