Published on Mar 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 27-03-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
2:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
6:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
6:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
6:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Current Conditions	Low	EUR
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Business Climate	High	EUR
9:00	(Germany) Ifo Expectations	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
9:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
9:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
9:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
9:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
9:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
9:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
9:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Distributive Trades	Medium	GBP
11:00	(France) Jobseekers Total	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) Unemployment Benefit Claims	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
15:40	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
22:00	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - NZD/USD is trading around 0.6200 in early Monday trading, showing a lack of direction following a bearish weekly close. Despite cautious optimism from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and mixed news, investors are feeling anxious ahead of key economic data releases from the US and China.

RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby sought to ease concerns about potential banking fallout in New Zealand due to recent floods. He stated that the country's banks have strong capital ratios and should remain resilient even during severe weather events. However, he also noted that further studies are necessary to understand how such events could potentially compound with other risks to the financial system.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is currently showing a slight adjustment near the lower boundary of a Rising Channel chart pattern on a two-hour timeframe. In this pattern, corrective moves are seen as buying opportunities by market participants.

The Kiwi asset is trading below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6222, which suggests that the short-term trend is still bearish.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which also favors a downside bias.

If there is a rebound above the high of March 07 at 0.6223, the asset could move towards the high of March 13 at 0.6265, followed by the upper boundary of the chart pattern around 0.6325. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - If NZD/USD breaks below the support level at March 21 low of 0.6167, it could potentially move towards the March 15 low of 0.6139. If it falls below this level, the next potential support level is at the round-level of 0.6100. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -