Published on May 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 24-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Ecuador) The Battle of Pichincha	None	USD
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
03:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	Medium	NZD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
04:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Press Conference	Medium	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:10	(Australia) RBA Jacobs Speech	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Expectations	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Current Conditions	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Business Climate	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 15-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 2-Year FRN Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:10	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 5-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
19:00	(United States) FOMC Minutes	High	USD

Today's Scenario: - NZD/USD continues to face downward pressure, trading near a three-week low below 0.6200, specifically around 0.6180 at present, despite efforts by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr to calm bearish sentiment early on Wednesday. The currency pair experienced a significant drop of 150 pips following the RBNZ's decision to keep the peak rate unchanged, which disappointed the markets. Additionally, the central bank's decision to increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.25% was in line with general expectations.

Buy Scenario: - Any corrective bounce in the NZD/USD pair would struggle to attract Kiwi buyers unless it manages to surpass the 0.6220 level. However, even if this level is breached, the bulls would face resistance from a descending trend line that has been in place for the past two weeks, located around 0.6305 at the time of writing, before potentially aiming for the monthly high of 0.6385. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - Following the NZD/USD pair's downward break of the key level at 0.6220, prompted by the dovish stance of the RBNZ, sellers are expected to maintain control amid bearish signals from the MACD indicator. It is important to note that a trend line sloping upward from late April, in conjunction with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlights the 0.6220 level as a significant support-turned-resistance.

Consequently, the Kiwi pair is poised to reach a new monthly low, currently around 0.6160. This would bring attention to the previous monthly bottom at approximately 0.6110, followed by the yearly low near 0.6084, which was established in March. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -