Published on Mar 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 23-03-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) SNB Interest Rate Decision	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
11:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
12:00	(Germany) undesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Current Account	Medium	USD
12:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) 10-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has risen to around 0.6250 during the Asian session, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a brief pullback after dropping to near 102.00. The USD Index is hovering near its six-month low and is expected to continue its downward trend as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has approached its terminal rate.

The Fed had widely anticipated a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike, which pushed rates to 4.75-5.00%. Fed chair Jerome Powell attempted to maintain his hawkish stance, citing that rate cuts in 2023 were not being considered, as restrictive monetary policy was necessary to bring down the inflation rate to 2%. However, the hawkish stance was derailed after Powell commented that "some additional policy firming may be appropriate", indicating that the Fed has come closer to pausing its rate-hiking spell.

Buy Scenario: - NZD/USD is trading above the key support levels of a two-week-long support line and the 200-day moving average, and is mildly bid near 0.6225 on Thursday. Despite the recent pullback from the 100-day moving average, the Kiwi pair remains firm, with bullish signals from the MACD and RSI indicators. As such, NZD/USD is expected to make another attempt at crossing the 100-DMA resistance at 0.6280, followed by the 50-DMA resistance around the 0.6300 level. If the pair manages to surpass this level, it may challenge the mid-February high near 0.6390 and the round figure of 0.6400. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - NZD/USD is continuing to trade higher and is currently around 0.6225. The pair has been able to maintain its gains despite pulling back slightly from the 100-day moving average. It is currently supported by a support line that has been in place for two weeks, as well as the 200-day moving average. The bullish MACD signals and RSI (14) are also supporting the pair's upward bias.

If NZD/USD continues to trade higher, it may attempt to break through the 100-day moving average at 0.6280 and potentially challenge the 50-day moving average at 0.6300. If it breaks through this level, it may target the mid-February high near 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure.

However, if the pair pulls back, it may find support at the immediate support line near 0.6200. If it breaks through this level, it may find support at the 200-day moving average at 0.6158 and the 0.6130 level before potentially reaching the monthly low of 0.6084. Overall, the outlook for NZD/USD is bullish, but the path to the upside may be choppy. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -