Daily Analysis For NZD/USD  22-05-2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 22-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD
Economic Events : -
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders MoMMediumJPY
01:00(Canada) Victoria DayNoneCAD
01:00(Montenegro) Independence DayNoneEUR
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 1YMediumCNY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 5YMediumCNY
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI MoMLowEUR
07:30(Switzerland) Industrial Production YoYMediumCHF
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Greece) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD SentimentMediumAUD
09:00(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF SentimentMediumCHF
09:00(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY SentimentMediumJPY
09:00(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD SentimentMediumEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD SentimentMediumGBP
09:00(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD SentimentMediumCAD
09:00(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD SentimentMediumNZD
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:45(European Union) EU Bond AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoMLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoYLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Current AccountLowEUR
13:00(Kosovo) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(United States) Fed Bullard SpeechMediumUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
15:50(United States) Fed Barkin SpeechMediumUSD
15:50(United States) Fed Bostic SpeechMediumUSD
16:30(United States) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - NZD/USD continues to trade with a positive bias around 0.6275, extending its gains from the previous week despite mixed concerns regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Monday. The Kiwi pair is benefiting from the US Dollar's retreat, which is attributed to the absence of a significant US debt ceiling announcement and mixed comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
In terms of RBNZ-related news, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has reported that the Shadow Board is divided on whether the Reserve Bank should raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in the May Monetary Policy Statement. On the other hand, analysts at ANZ have increased their peak OCR forecast to 5.75% before the Budget, citing factors such as high net migration and the fiscal outlook. They also see additional upside risks to the OCR after the Budget and estimate a 40% probability of a 50 basis point hike on Wednesday, which is in line with market expectations.
Overall, NZD/USD remains on a positive trajectory, benefiting from the US Dollar's weakness and mixed sentiments surrounding the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions.

Buy Scenario: - To maintain its upward momentum, NZD/USD needs to avoid falling below the 0.6182 pivot level. If it succeeds, it could target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 0.6246. A breakthrough of the Friday high at 0.6305 would indicate a bullish session. However, for a breakout to occur, it would require supportive news regarding the US debt ceiling and the People's Bank of China (PBoC).
In the event of a breakout, the Kiwi could potentially test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 0.6371, with the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at 0.6435 serving as the next target. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if NZD/USD drops below the pivot level, it may encounter support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at 0.6058. However, unless there is a risk-off sentiment driving a sell-off, the pair is expected to stay above the sub-$0.62 level and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 0.5993.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) is located at 0.5869. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6058-R1 0.6246
S2 0.5993-R2 0.6371
S3 0.5869-R3 0.6435


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