Published on Mar 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 21-03-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
02:30	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:25	(Switzerland) SNB 2022 Annual Report	Low	CHF
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
12:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
15:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
20:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
21:00	(New Zealand) Westpac Consumer Confidence	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has been experiencing a downward trend for the past two days, with sellers targeting the key level of 0.6200. This comes after the pair had previously hit a monthly high. Despite this, the pair is still within a bearish chart pattern known as a rising wedge that has been in place for the past two weeks.

The bearish trend is further confirmed by the MACD signals, which are indicating a negative trend. The pair has also been unable to break through an upward-sloping resistance line that has been in place since February 20. All of these factors give sellers reason to be optimistic about the direction of the NZD/USD pair.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair may experience some recovery in the short term, with an initial target of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6257. If the pair is successful in breaking through this level, it may challenge the monthly resistance line at 0.6275. However, for the recovery to be sustained, the pair must remain above the top line of the aforementioned rising wedge, which is currently near 0.6300.

Despite the potential for a short-term recovery, sellers of the NZD/USD pair remain optimistic as long as the quote stays below the rising wedge's top line, which is currently around 0.6300.

Overall, the NZD/USD pair is still on the bearish trend, with the further downside dependent on the pair's ability to break below 0.6190. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The NZD/USD bears are facing a tough resistance level at 0.6190, which is marked by the confluence of the 100-SMA, the lower line of the rising wedge, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's February-March decline. If the bears manage to break below this level, there is a possibility that the pair could experience a decline towards the psychological magnet of 0.6000.

During the anticipated decline, the 0.6100 threshold and the monthly low of 0.6084 may provide some temporary support for the NZD/USD pair. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -