Published on Apr 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 19-04-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
04:35	(Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:35	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 5-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Fed Beige Book	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) CPI	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has been trading sluggishly during the Asian session but has managed to hold onto the key support level of 0.6200. The pair is currently approaching the resistance level of 0.6220, supported by a weaker US Dollar Index (DXY).

At the same time, S&P500 futures have been declining, indicating cautious market sentiment among investors who are concerned about the future performance of equities. Commercial banks in the US have shown mixed performance, causing investor anxiety over the quarterly performance of banking stocks, especially after the market turbulence in March and the tight credit conditions imposed by banks.

Buy Scenario: - To regain momentum, the NZD/USD bulls need to break through the 50-DMA hurdle of 0.6230 and successfully break the previous support line that was stretched from early March, which is currently near 0.6315. In this case, the buyers could push the pair to refresh the monthly high, currently around 0.6385. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness as it renews its intraday low to 0.6190 during early trading on Wednesday. The pair has failed to cross the 50-day moving average (DMA) hurdle and has retreated from slightly below it, as well as losing the bounce off the 200-DMA that occurred earlier in the week.

The RSI (14) line has been steady, indicating that the NZD/USD price may continue to trade sideways between the 50-DMA and 200-DMA, which are respectively located near 0.6230 and 0.6160.

If the pair fails to break through the 50-DMA, it is likely to drop towards the 200-DMA support of 0.6160. If the NZD/USD falls below this level, it could test the yearly low marked in March around 0.6080. The bears could then be attracted to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the Kiwi pair's run-up from October 2022 to February 2023, which are around 0.6025 and 0.5900 respectively. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -