Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 17-04-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair experienced a sharp drop as the US Dollar strengthened following renewed hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve. The pair fell from its high of 0.6314 to a low of 0.6195 and is currently stabilizing around the 0.62 level. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on the need for higher interest rates to return inflation to the target of 2% contributed to the Dollar's strength, although other Fed officials had differing views. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that one more interest rate hike could end the tightening cycle, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned of the possibility of a US recession. The market is currently pricing in an 81% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the May 2-3 Fed meeting, according to Fed funds futures traders.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line, now an immediate resistance level around 0.6230. The 100-day moving average and a nine-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6300 and 0.6390, respectively, followed by the 0.6400 round figure, could challenge the NZD/USD bulls before they gain control. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - NZD/USD is hovering near the 0.6200 mark on Monday after posting its largest daily decline in 10 weeks on the previous day. Mixed signals from New Zealand's inflation data are keeping the Kiwi pair on the bearish side. The Business NZ PSI dropped to 54.4 in March, while the Food Price Index rose to 0.8% from the previous reading of 1.5%.

The Kiwi pair's bearish bias is strengthened by its clear reversal from the 100-day moving average and a downside break of an ascending trend line from early October 2022. The steady RSI (14) line also indicates further downside potential.

Therefore, the pair is likely to test the 200-day moving average support around 0.6160 and the previous monthly low and yearly bottom around 0.6080. The 0.6100 mark could provide an intermediate support during the expected decline. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -