Daily Analysis For NZD/USD  16-05-2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 16-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD
Economic Events : -
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence IndexHighAUD
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Meeting MinutesHighAUD
03:00(China) Unemployment RateHighCNY
03:00(China) Retail Sales YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Industrial Production YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls ChangeLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)LowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)MediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Unemployment RateHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Claimant Count ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Employment ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQLowGBP
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoYLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
09:00(European Union) ECOFIN MeetingMediumEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
09:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
09:40(Spain) 3-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMediumEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Current ConditionsLowEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexHighEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) Fed Mester SpeechMediumUSD
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate MoMMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Median YoYHighCAD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
13:55(United States) Fed Bostic SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:45(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen SpeechLowEUR
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) NAHB Housing Market IndexMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
15:00(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
16:30(United States) 52-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:15(United States) Fed Williams SpeechMediumUSD
20:15(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has fallen below the 0.6250 level following the release of weaker-than-expected annual Retail Sales data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The reported data showed a slower expansion of 18.4% compared to the forecasted growth of 21.0%, although it was higher than the previous release of 10.6%.
In addition, the annual Industrial Production data for April also came in between the estimates at 5.6%, surpassing the forecasted 10.9% but lower than the previous release of 3.9%. The slower growth rate in retail demand and industrial production suggests that the Chinese economy is gradually progressing after the easing of full lockdown restrictions.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has reached a new intraday high near 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is benefiting from the weakness in the US Dollar. The upcoming release of China's Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for April, as well as the US Retail Sales data for the same month, are important events to watch. Additionally, the US debt ceiling talks scheduled for 19:00 GMT on Tuesday will have an impact on market sentiment.
However, the NZD/USD pair faces resistance from the impending bear cross on the MACD and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6255.
If the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the pair's decline from February to March, around 0.6310 and 0.6365 respectively, will be the next challenges for buyers.
Even if the NZD/USD bulls succeed in surpassing the 0.6365 hurdle, there is a significant horizontal resistance area between 0.6385 and 0.6395 that has proven difficult to break since early February. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, there is a key support level at 0.6190, which is marked by an upward-sloping trend line from April 26 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the NZD/USD bears take control and push below 0.6190, the previous monthly low around 0.6110 could provide some temporary support before potentially targeting the yearly low reached in March around 0.6085. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6205-R1 0.6263
S2 0.6166-R2 0.6282
S3 0.6147-R3 0.6321


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