Daily Analysis For NZD/USD  12-05-2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 12-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD
Economic Events : -
04:00(New Zealand) Business Inflation ExpectationsLowNZD
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Current AccountLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Goods Trade BalanceHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EUHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Balance of TradeLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP MoMHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month AvgMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Construction Orders YoYLowGBP
07:45(France) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
07:45(France) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Spain) CPIHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(United States) Fed Bowman SpeechMediumUSD
09:00(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
10:00(China) Current AccountMediumCNY
11:00(Spain) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
11:00(Latvia) Current AccountLowEUR
12:15(United Kingdom) BoE Pill SpeechMediumGBP
13:00(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP TrackerLowGBP
13:30(United States) Export Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:45(Germany) Current AccountLowEUR
14:00(Ecuador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer SentimentHighUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Current ConditionsLowUSD
15:30(Canada) Senior Loan Officer SurveyMediumCAD
17:00(United States) WASDE ReportLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is facing downward pressure as it continues its reversal from the monthly high and reaches the weekly low around 0.6260 in early Friday trading. This decline can be attributed to disappointing inflation data from New Zealand and overall strength in the US Dollar, which has led to a breach of key technical support levels.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for the second quarter of 2023 have dropped to the lowest levels since the third quarter of 2021, coming in at 2.79% compared to the previous reading of 3.30%. Additionally, New Zealand's Business NZ PMI for April fell to 49.1, below the expected 50.7 and the previous reading of 48.1. Visitor Arrivals in March also experienced a decline, growing by only 805% compared to the previous growth rate of 4,998%.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, immediate recovery attempts by the NZD/USD pair could face resistance at the 50-day SMA and the previous support line, located around 0.6290 and 0.6300, respectively.
Further ahead, the one-month-old horizontal resistance area near 0.6315 and the double tops formed near 0.6385 will be critical levels to observe for potential bullish moves in NZD/USD. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has experienced a break below key technical levels, including an upward-sloping trend line from late April and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.6300 and 0.6290, respectively.
In addition to the negative impact of New Zealand's economic data and the breach of technical supports, bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator further support the selling pressure on NZD/USD, pushing it towards the weekly low near 0.6260.
However, it's worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, indicating a possible short-term support around the 200-day SMA level of approximately 0.6230 for NZD/USD bears to monitor.
If the 0.6230 support is breached, the focus will shift to the round figure of 0.6200 and the late April swing high around 0.6190. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 0.6263-R1 0.6359
S2 0.6228-R2 0.6420
S3 0.6167-R3 0.6455


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