Published on May 10, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 10-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Mothers' Day	None	USD
05:30	(Netherlands) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI s.a	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 10-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Monthly Budget Statement	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is currently trading just below the mid-0.6300s after recovering from a slight drop the previous day. It remains within striking distance of the one-month high achieved earlier this week. The market's anticipation of the US CPI report is expected to influence the Fed's next policy move, which should in turn impact USD demand and give the NZD/USD pair a fresh directional boost. The current cautious market sentiment is lending some support to the safe-haven USD, which may hinder the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is trading with slight gains around 0.6340 in early Wednesday, fluctuating within a weekly ascending trend channel. The pair is reversing its previous day's corrective pullback from a one-month high as it approaches the short-term key resistance confluence on the release day of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

On the other hand, the recent peak around 0.6360 comes before a resistance confluence at 0.6385-90, consisting of the aforementioned channel's top line and tops marked in April, to encourage NZD/USD buyers. Even if the Kiwi pair manages to surpass the 0.6390 obstacle, the psychological level of 0.6400 may act as an additional barrier for buyers. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - However, the bearish signals from the MACD and the nearly overbought RSI (14) suggest a possible pullback for the NZD/USD pair. The lower end of the bullish channel mentioned earlier near 0.6325, the mid-April swing high near 0.6315, and the round figure of 0.6300 act as key short-term support levels.

If the NZD/USD bears maintain control below 0.6300, there is a possibility of the pair's further decline towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the March-April upside, near 0.6235 and 0.6200 respectively.. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -