Published on Apr 6, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 06-04-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Maundy Thursday	None	USD
01:00	(Portugal) Maundy Thursday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Financial Stability Review	Medium	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Composite PMI	Low	CNY
02:45	(China) Caixin Services PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:45	(Switzerland) Unemployment Rate	High	CHF
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	CHF
08:30	(Euro Area) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Construction PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Italy) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI	Medium	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Hourly Wages YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Participation Rate	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Employment Change	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Unemployment Rate	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:00	(Ecuador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During early Thursday, NZD/USD is experiencing its first day of losses in four as it flirts with the 0.6300 round figure. The US Dollar's corrective bounce driven by broad risk aversion is weighing on the Kiwi pair, but the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and strong China activity data are limiting losses. China's Caixin Services PMI rose to 57.8, the highest level since November 2020, which may have supported the Kiwi. However, concerns over potential geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan and North Korea may have also pressured the NZD/USD. The previous day, the NZD/USD rose to a seven-week high after the RBNZ unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 0.50%, but downbeat US data and recession fears later led to the currency pair's decline.

Buy Scenario: - NZD/USD is currently trading within a Rising Channel chart pattern, in which every pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity by traders. Although the pair attempted to break out of the pattern on Wednesday, it failed to maintain its strength in the face of responsive selling.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is providing support to the Kiwi Dollar at 0.6312.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has entered the 40.00-60.00 range after the upside momentum waned.

If NZD/USD can decisively break above the February 07 high at 0.6363, it could potentially expose the asset to the round-level resistance at 0.6400, followed by the December 05 high at 0.6443. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair breaks down below the March 21 low at 0.6167, it could lead to a drop towards the March 15 low at 0.6139, with further downside potential towards the round-level support at 0.6100. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -