Published on May 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 04-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Japan) Greenery Day	None	JPY
01:00	(Latvia) Declaration of Independence Day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:30	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:15	(Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate	Low	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate	High	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Press Conference	High	EUR
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrs	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair reached a new high of 0.6225. The upward trend for the New Zealand dollar is strong following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to maintain a neutral policy stance during its June monetary policy meeting.

Although S&P500 futures have recovered some of their early losses in Asia, indicating an improvement in market sentiment among investors, overall market sentiment remains cautious. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has stabilized after testing Wednesday's low of 101.07. The market's growing expectation that the Fed has reached its terminal rate, for now, has had a significant impact on US Treasury yields. Yields for 10-year US Treasury bonds have dropped to 3.33%.

Buy Scenario: - In NZD/USD pair any recovery attempts may initially face resistance at the 200-SMA level around 0.6215 before challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the recent swing high at around 0.6250 and 0.6260, respectively.

Subsequently, the golden ratio or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6280, the 0.6300 round figure, and mid-April's swing high at 0.6316 will be the next targets for the NZD/USD bulls. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is facing resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its April 5-26 decline, located near 0.6250, and an imminent bear cross on the MACD indicator suggests that selling pressure may increase.

Furthermore, the recent decline below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at around 0.6215 adds to the bearish sentiment.

As a result, the Kiwi pair is likely to fall towards the weekly support line around 0.6200, but the former resistance level from early April, now turned support at 0.6175, may limit further downside.

If the quote breaks below 0.6175, the pair may decline towards the previous monthly low, also the Year-To-Date (YTD) bottom, at 0.6110. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -