Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 03-05-2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 03-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis
NZD/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Japan) Constitution Memorial DayNoneJPY
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
07:45(France) Budget BalanceLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Unemployment RateLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 2-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Budget BalanceLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
14:30(United States) Treasury Refunding AnnouncementLowUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
19:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Building Permits MoMLowNZD
Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has broken through a key resistance level of 0.6220, following the release of positive Employment data (Q1) by Stats NZ. The Employment Change figures came in higher than expected at 0.8% compared to the consensus of 0.4% and the previous release of 0.2%. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 3.4%, matching the previous quarter's figure but lower than the expected rate of 3.5%.
Additionally, the quarterly Labor Cost Index data showed an increase of 0.8%, which is lower than both the estimates and the previous release of 1.1%. The annual Employment Cost Index landed at 4.5%, which is lower than the expected 4.6% but higher than the previous release of 4.3%.
The tight labor market in New Zealand may force the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to remain hawkish to combat inflation, as resilient consumer spending is expected to continue due to higher employment.
It's worth noting that in April, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr surprised the markets by raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.25% to strengthen the country's defenses against persistent inflation.
Investors will be closely watching the upcoming Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April) data, which is expected to be lower at 50.3 compared to the previous figure of 50.0.
Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair needs to avoid dropping below the pivot point of $0.6196 to aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6229. If it manages to break above the morning high of $0.62246, it would indicate a bullish session. However, for a breakout to occur, market risk sentiment needs to support it.
If a breakout session happens, the Kiwi is likely to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6251. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $0.6306. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.
Sell Scenario: - If the pair falls below the pivot point, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6174 would come into play. However, unless there is a sell-off due to the Fed, the NZD/USD is expected to avoid dropping below $0.6150 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6141.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) is at $0.6086. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.6175-R1 0.6231
S2 0.6141-R2 0.6253
S3 0.6119-R3 0.6287

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