Published on May 2, 2023

Daily Analysis For NZD/USD 02-05-2023

NZD/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for NZD/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Consumer Confidence	High	CHF
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability Report	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Participation Rate	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQ	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Unemployment Rate	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair has broken through the immediate resistance level of 0.6170 during the early Tokyo session after experiencing a significant sell-off on Monday due to failing to surpass the round-level resistance of 0.6200.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing selling pressure near its two-week-old resistance of 102.20, which may be attributed to pre-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy anxiety among investors.

Investors will be closely monitoring Wednesday's employment data from both New Zealand and the United States. In particular, New Zealand's Employment Change (Q1) is expected to remain steady at 0.2%, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.5% from the previous release of 3.4%.

In the US, investors will be watching the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data. According to market consensus, the US economy is expected to have added 150K jobs in April, lower than the previous additions of 145K.

Buy Scenario: - The NZD/USD pair is currently facing resistance from a downward-sloping trendline that has been formed since April 05. However, the pair has formed a higher high after a lower high and lower low structure, indicating a possible bullish reversal.

The Kiwi asset is currently experiencing selling pressure at the horizontal resistance level set at 0.6204, which was previously established on April 20.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen into the 40.00-60.00 range, which suggests that the asset may be in a period of consolidation.

If the NZD/USD pair can break above the April 20 high of 0.6204, then bullish traders will likely push the asset towards the April 19 high at 0.6227, followed by the April 07 high at 0.6265. Till we do not advise to buy NZD/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair breaks down below the April 26 low at 0.6110, then the asset may head towards the March 08 low at 0.6088, followed by the November 15, 2022 low at 0.6058. Till we do not advise to sell NZD/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -