Published on Apr 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 28-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	JPY
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
06:30	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(European Union) Informal ECOFIN Meeting	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) SNB Jordan Speech	Low	CHF
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Wages QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:00	(Canada) Budget Balance	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Despite its traditional safe-haven status, the price of gold (XAU/USD) has been under pressure below the $2,000 mark for the past three days. Even though buyers of the yellow metal are expecting weekly gains, the XAU/USD seems to be ignoring the recent recovery of the US Dollar, which has been supported by positive inflation signals from the US economic calendar. The policymakers' inability to agree on measures ahead of the likely due date in June regarding the US debt ceiling expiration is also contributing to this uncertainty. Moreover, the positive performance of equities due to the strong results of technology companies is allowing gold prices to remain firm.

It is worth noting that the recent fears stemming from the First Republic Bank (FRB) are also playing a role in the rebound of gold prices, despite the lackluster moves of the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index for March. The index is expected to ease to 4.5% YoY from the previous reading of 4.6%. Along the same line, the tensions between the US and China, as well as the latest harsh comments from a Chinese diplomat to Japan regarding Taiwan's status, are also adding to the uncertainty in the market.

Buy Scenario: - there are a number of obstacles preventing the price from rising quickly. For instance, the short-term upside of gold is limited by several upside barriers around $1,990 and $1,993, including the 5-day moving average (DMA) and Fibonacci 61.8% on a one-day timeframe. The psychological barrier of $2,000, which includes Fibonacci 61.8% on a one-week timeframe, could also prevent gold buyers from pushing the price higher before directing them to the monthly high of around $2,010, which also comprises the Pivot Point one week R1.

It's important to note that there are additional filters for gold traders to keep an eye on, such as the previous daily high of around $2,005 and the previous weekly low near $1,970. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - According to our Technical Confluence indicator, the price of gold has remained steady and has even surpassed the $1,964 support confluence, which includes Fibonacci 23.6% on a one-month and Pivot Point one-week S1. This has kept the buyers optimistic, especially since the XAU/USD has been trading above the $1,980 support level for one week and one day, which also includes Fibonacci 23.6%. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -