Published on May 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 19-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Belgium) Friday after Ascension Day	None	EUR
04:00	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) PPI MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Montenegro) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
13:45	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
15:55	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(United States) Fed Chair Powell Speech	High	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
20:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR

Today's Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently struggling to find a clear direction after a three-day downtrend, with bears taking a breather at levels not seen since early April. The temporary pause in further declines may be attributed to news suggesting that the US House Freedom Caucus has the ability to block any agreement to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Additionally, the US-Taiwan trade deal and upcoming meetings between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, USTR Tai, and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo could increase tensions between the US and China, pressuring gold bears.

Previously, a decrease in market expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in 2023, along with an increase in the likelihood of a 0.25% rate hike in June, stronger US economic data, and hawkish Fed comments, boosted the US Dollar Index (DXY) and weighed on the price of gold.

Buy Scenario: - The price of gold is currently defending the previous day's break below the $1,975 support level. This level now acts as resistance and is a confluence of the Pivot Point one week S2 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the daily timeframe.

In addition to the $1,975 hurdle, there are multiple resistance levels near $1,965 and $1,960 that are challenging the recovery of the gold price. The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement on the daily timeframe highlights $1,965 as an important resistance, while the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement on the daily timeframe marks $1,960 as a support-turned-resistance level.

If the gold price manages to surpass the $1,975 hurdle, the Pivot Point one day R1 around $1,981 could act as an additional resistance before giving control to the buyers. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, the immediate key support for the gold bears to watch is around $1,950, which is a convergence of the previous monthly low and the lower band of the Bollinger on the four-hour timeframe.

Further down, a cluster of the Pivot Point one day S1, one week S3, and one month S1 levels highlights $1,945 as a strong support level that would be challenging for sellers to break.

Overall, the gold price remains bearish unless it crosses above $1,980. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -